The Democratic
Revolutionary Handbook
First Run/Icarus
Films, Brooklyn, New York, 2005
VHS-DVD, 54 mins., color
Sales, $390; rental VHS, $100
Distributors
website: http://www.frif.com.
Jonathan Zilberg
jonathanzilberg@gmail.com
To be cynical, The Democratic Revolutionary
Handbook is rather more a case study
of how three student led revolutions were
successfully orchestrated in Serbia, Georgia,
and the Ukraine than a magic bullet for
those hoping to overthrow more venal "democratorships."
Indeed, though the documentary initially
promises hope and tactical lessons for
activists planning to follow in the footsteps
of these youth movements, respectively
OTPOR, KMARA and PORA (meaning Resistance,
Enough and Its Time), it soberly ends
with the failure of NAGAM in Azerbaijan
in 2005 and the exceedingly unlikely possibility
of any change there in the 2008 election.
The film begins in Baku, Serbia in late
November 2000 with the classic images
of chaos, tear gas, and the sounds of
sirens before dramatically switching to
an OTPOR activists calm presentation
of the simple steps used to collapse three
autocratic governments in short succession.
It reveals that though these revolutions
appeared spontaneous, they were in fact
carefully coordinated by tiny groups of
youthful democratic rebels following strict
standard operating procedures and the
three crucial elements for success: unity
of the opposition, non-violent discipline,
and a sound strategic plan. Technically,
if followed properly, the methodology
should allow activists to topple governments
through orchestrating the convergence
of a critical mass of demonstrators in
the capital to expose voter fraud on Election
Day.
The case of PORA and the Orange Revolution
that overthrew Kuchma in the Ukraine was
the "coolest" or "sexiest"
of these political transformations. With
the power of experience and deft media
management, politics was turned into a
lifestyle choice for youth. Television
became a space for political theater,
news became entertainment, football stars
became celebrity political supporters,
and flash mobs enacting 15 minute protests
turned the streets into non-stop pro-democracy
theaters. When one million supporters
came out onto the streets at the crucial
stage of demanding an honest final vote
count, PORA was able to sustain the required
pressure despite the freezing weather
by erecting a tent city with the lightning
cash injection of foreign aid. Late that
night, snow falling fast and freezing,
the government surrendered. Against this
victorious backdrop, the narrator then
asks whether it is really so easy to force
democratic regime change simply by following
the instructions in The Democratic
Revolutionary Handbook.
To answer the question, the scene switches
to Azerbaijan and the failure of NAGAM.
Azerbaijan seemed a promising context
except that international oil contracts
were at stake, the state was fully prepared
to use force and muzzle the media, and
the demo-funders were predictably not
interested. Though NAGAM did all it could
with its limited resources despite the
lack of the critical components of international
support, an independent media and a nascent
civil society, the regime easily kept
the situation under control as would later
happen in Kazahkstan and Belarus.
As the failure of NAGAM demonstrated,
organizing a democratic revolution requires
money and foreign expertise from demo-donors
in order to produce training materials,
create regional networks and implement
the program. Enter the German Marshall
Fund, Freedom House, Washington based
Neo-Conservatives such as Bruce Jackson,
Director of the Project of Transitional
Democracies and creative figures such
as Peter Ackerman at the International
Center of Non-Violent Resistance, which
exists for sharing such knowledge and
providing materials for testing virtual
scenarios for rehearsing regime change.
The lesson is simple: If you want to succeed
in leading democratic change, you will
need foreign support and if your
nation is of strategic international interest
forget it. So much for the universality
of the Jeffersonian ideal in the trade
off of stability for democracy!
The important issue here is whether the
information provided in this film can
assist groups trying to effect change
through the vote and non-violence in despotic
democracies. For example, states such
as Zimbabwe provide alternative cases
of how to sustain democratorships even
if the divided opposition has international
support and the country is of no strategic
value. How? Control the situation through
sustained intimidation, voter registration
manipulation, rigged elections, vote fraud,
and food aid politics. Muzzle the independent
press, hobble civil society, play the
race card and the xenophobic blame game
to externalize the political crisis, use
maximum force through the police, the
army and revolutionary youth brigades,
alter the constitution to achieve these
ends and finally, legalize the consolidation
of power in the face of internal fragmentation
and economic meltdown. Game over?
In the face of these overwhelming odds,
and using similar tactics to those employed
by OTPOL, KMARA and PORA, WOZA has suddenly
emerged on the scene - WOZA being a group
of exceedingly brave women working for
non-violent democratic change in Zimbabwe.
The current unfolding story of the crackdown
on WOZA, and the apparently complete impotence
of the Zimbabwean opposition, the Movement
for Democratic Change (MDC), unfortunately
provides yet another scenario for the
reason not to take this otherwise excellent
liberation handbook overly seriously
or to study it very carefully in
an attempt to adapt its lessons to more
extreme contexts.
Though such states make sure that OTPORs
tactics cannot be applied, here are the
essential ingredients for successfully
creating a democratic revolution: brand
and launch a new youth movement, recruit
and train demonstrators to control their
fear, stage protests so as to use the
state media for free advertising and magnification
of the brand and its aims, and then observe
elections so as to expose vote fraud.
Finally, organize a mass protest in the
capital during the election count so as
to create the necessary conditions for
orchestrating a tipping point. But remember,
the most important factor of all, the
critical condition, is that these tactics
will only work if the state is unwilling
to employ extreme intimidation, unlawful
incarceration, torture and when
required - murder.
Simply put, through sufficient surveillance
and force a powerful and wholly committed
police state can easily thwart each of
the required steps for democratic transitions
outlined in The Democratic Revolutionary
Handbook.